Tuning lab
Try settings on past games to get ideas. Only tune on older seasons: a setting that looks good here is just a hypothesis until it is frozen as a version and wins on the Benchmark page. Each prediction only uses games played before it. Data goes from 2019-10-22 to 2027-04-11 (9000 finished games).
Results
Bet hit rate68.4%3885 won of 5678 bets
All games hit rate64.4%7862 games predicted
Break-even odds1.46Average odds needed to not lose money on our bets
Brier score0.222Lower is better, 0.250 is a coin flip
Calibration
If our model is honest, games we call at 70% should be won about 70% of the time.
| Our confidence | Games | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 1095 | 52.6% | 53.4% |
| 55–60% | 1089 | 57.6% | 54.8% |
| 60–65% | 1179 | 62.5% | 59.3% |
| 65–70% | 1115 | 67.4% | 61.3% |
| 70–80% | 1865 | 74.8% | 69.4% |
| 80%+ | 1519 | 85.8% | 79.5% |
Games
| Date | Matchup | Our pick | Confidence | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | IND @ MIA | MIA | 78% | 125 – 145 | Won |
| Fri 30 Oct | HOU @ DAL | HOU | 60% | 111 – 116 | Lost |
| Fri 30 Oct | LAC @ MIN | MIN | 76% | 101 – 127 | Won |
| Fri 30 Oct | CHI @ BOS | BOS | 88% | 111 – 125 | Won |
| Fri 30 Oct | DET @ BKN | DET | 82% | 110 – 94 | Won |
| Fri 30 Oct | ORL @ TOR | TOR | 69% | 121 – 114 | Lost |
| Fri 30 Oct | CHA @ WAS | CHA | 72% | 79 – 95 | Lost |
| Thu 29 Oct | MEM @ POR | POR | 83% | 124 – 103 | Lost |
| Thu 29 Oct | CLE B2B @ ATL B2B | ATL | 60% | 111 – 114 | Won |
| Thu 29 Oct | SAC @ NOP B2B | NOP | 66% | 120 – 132 | Won |
| Wed 28 Oct | LAL B2B @ LAC | LAC | 62% | 103 – 87 | Lost |
| Wed 28 Oct | OKC @ DAL | OKC | 77% | 96 – 120 | Lost |
| Wed 28 Oct | SAS B2B @ UTA | SAS | 79% | 117 – 111 | Won |
| Wed 28 Oct | NYK B2B @ CHI | NYK | 74% | 133 – 127 | Won |
| Wed 28 Oct | HOU @ MIL | HOU | 70% | 132 – 100 | Won |
| Wed 28 Oct | GSW @ MIN | MIN | 80% | 119 – 114 | Lost |
| Wed 28 Oct | ORL @ TOR | TOR | 65% | 99 – 129 | Won |
| Wed 28 Oct | MIA @ ATL | ATL | 76% | 129 – 117 | Lost |
| Wed 28 Oct | WAS @ CLE | CLE | 90% | 111 – 121 | Won |
| Wed 28 Oct | CHA @ DET B2B | DET | 68% | 89 – 97 | Won |
| Tue 27 Oct | POR @ LAL | LAL | 70% | 136 – 129 | Lost |
| Tue 27 Oct | DET @ NYK | NYK | 69% | 97 – 111 | Won |
| Tue 27 Oct | SAC @ SAS | SAS | 93% | 103 – 130 | Won |
| Tue 27 Oct | BKN @ BOS B2B | BOS | 90% | 124 – 125 | Won |
| Mon 26 Oct | GSW @ DEN | DEN | 82% | 134 – 114 | Lost |
| Mon 26 Oct | ATL @ HOU | HOU | 67% | 110 – 120 | Won |
| Mon 26 Oct | IND B2B @ MIL | MIL | 66% | 102 – 110 | Won |
| Mon 26 Oct | PHX @ OKC B2B | OKC | 81% | 114 – 125 | Won |
| Mon 26 Oct | CHI @ BOS | BOS | 87% | 99 – 134 | Won |
| Mon 26 Oct | DAL @ MIA | MIA | 74% | 113 – 109 | Lost |
| Mon 26 Oct | WAS @ CHA | CHA | 89% | 103 – 110 | Won |
| Mon 26 Oct | MIN B2B @ CLE | CLE | 65% | 125 – 127 | Won |
| Sun 25 Oct | MEM @ SAC | SAC | 64% | 123 – 112 | Lost |
| Sun 25 Oct | ORL @ NYK | NYK | 84% | 111 – 102 | Lost |
| Sun 25 Oct | TOR @ MIN | MIN | 70% | 94 – 117 | Won |
| Sun 25 Oct | LAC @ OKC | OKC | 84% | 101 – 108 | Won |
| Sun 25 Oct | LAL @ UTA | LAL | 71% | 132 – 123 | Won |
| Sat 24 Oct | GSW B2B @ PHX | PHX | 78% | 122 – 131 | Won |
| Sat 24 Oct | NOP B2B @ DEN | DEN | 87% | 135 – 141 | Won |
| Sat 24 Oct | HOU B2B @ ATL B2B | ATL | 64% | 121 – 114 | Lost |
| Sat 24 Oct | WAS B2B @ CHI B2B | CHI | 76% | 124 – 120 | Lost |
| Sat 24 Oct | SAS B2B @ DAL B2B | SAS | 73% | 122 – 106 | Won |
| Sat 24 Oct | BKN @ CLE | CLE | 89% | 121 – 125 | Won |
| Sat 24 Oct | MIL B2B @ PHI | PHI | 88% | 116 – 127 | Won |
| Sat 24 Oct | MIA B2B @ CHA B2B | CHA | 73% | 110 – 115 | Won |
| Fri 23 Oct | MEM @ GSW | GSW | 76% | 111 – 108 | Lost |
| Fri 23 Oct | LAC @ LAL | LAL | 71% | 117 – 125 | Won |
| Fri 23 Oct | POR @ SAC | POR | 61% | 128 – 120 | Won |
| Fri 23 Oct | HOU @ SAS | SAS | 77% | 114 – 110 | Lost |
| Fri 23 Oct | ATL @ CHA | CHA | 72% | 128 – 81 | Lost |